Slower play, fewer goals… Bundesliga stats tell what to expect once PL returns
The Premier League will return on June 17 after three months away. Ninety-two games, all behind closed doors, all on TV.
What on earth will it look like? Those who have watched the Bundesliga’s return will know that the spectacle is much different. No fans, no atmosphere, weird celebrations and subs in masks.
But will the game have changed too? Here we take a look at what has changed since the Bundesliga came back and what we can expect once the Premier League returns.
If the Premier League get their wish and matches are played home and away, then clubs can forget about using the familiar surroundings to their benefit.
As we reported last week, a study of all games played behind closed doors in Europe since the Second World War showed that empty stands all-but wipe out home advantage.
If the Bundesliga is anything to go by, the home team is now at a disadvantage. Before the break, home teams won 43 per cent of games. Since the restart there have only been seven home wins out of 32 games — 21 per cent. Away sides have won 48 per cent of matches compared to 35 per cent before the break.
Aston Villa have more home games left than any other team in the Premier League bottom six, with six out of their final 10 games at Villa Park. Suddenly, that does not look like much of an advantage.
The Bundesliga is the highest-scoring division of Europe’s big five leagues, averaging 3.25 goals per game before the break. Since the restart, that has dropped to less than three. There are 2.6 fewer shots per game.
There are not as many late goals. There was a goal in the last 10 minutes in every 1.7 Bundesliga games before football stopped. Since, there has been one in every three.
Perhaps without the fans to roar you on — or the match fitness to keep you going — there is not as much left in the tank.
A slower game?
The Bundesliga’s return has also led to a slower, less intense game.
One worry about games played behind closed doors is that they could feel more like friendlies. The intensity of the Premier League is one of the reasons why it attracts such a global audience.
Since the Bundesliga returned there have been fewer shots and goals but there have been more passes: nearly 18 more per game — though that figure was at 33 before the latest round of fixtures, so perhaps players and teams are slowly getting back up to speed.
There have been more passes in teams’ own half of the pitch. Across the first three gameweeks (excluding Saturday night’s Bayern Munich game) teams played nearly 30 more passes per game inside their own half than before the break.
There are fewer tackles, too.
Refs hit home teams
Studies have long shown that referees are influenced subconsciously by home crowds.
The Bundesliga’s return has only backed that up. Before the break, home teams received a red card once in every 19 games while away teams had a player sent off once in every eight matches.
Since the restart, home sides have had four red cards compared to three for away teams. Home teams are being shown more yellow cards than before and away teams fewer. There goes that home advantage again.
I have read so many comments that pl is different..other leagues like bundesliga ligue 1 and serie A are farmers league..i dn understand the meaning of farmers league. Yes its true bayern and juve have been winning too much.. but that doesn mean they are served the cup on the plate.. they have been working hard.their academy is good and u may not like the league but atleast give respect to players and their hardwork..
The Premier League is naturally more intense and physical compared to the Bundesliga. The tens of thousands of fans in the stadiums play a big part in the high octane nature of Premier League matches and the absence of those supporters will affect the intensity of games to some extent. But I don’t think there will be a notable dip in the perceived high intensity of games, the players will still play to win even without fans. Can’t wait for June 17.